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The Kremlin removed some restrictions on using Russian reservists in combat, allowing the Kremlin to employ reservists in its war in Ukraine. The Russian government approved on October 13 a draft law that the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) proposed stipulating that servicemembers of the Russian mobilization reserve can perform defensive tasks during armed conflicts, counter-terrorist operations, or deployments outside Russian territory. The law proposes that the Russian president can call up reservists for special training lasting up to two months. An explanatory note to the law states that the changes will allow Russia to deploy reservists during peacetime, expanding the current legislation that only allows Russia to deploy reservists during mobilization or wartime. Russian State Duma Defense Committee Chairperson Andrei Kartapolov stated on October 13 that the law will allow the Kremlin to deploy reservists outside of Russian territory, including to Ukraine’s Sumy and Kharkiv oblasts. ISW will review the significance of this draft law in an upcoming warning update publication.
European officials continue to note how Russia is intensifying its covert and overt attacks against Europe, supporting ISW’s assessment that Russia has entered “Phase Zero” — the informational and psychological condition setting phase — of its campaign to prepare for a possible NATO-Russia war in the future. Polish National Security Bureau Chief Sławomir Cenckiewicz told the Financial Times in an article published on October 12 that Russia is using cryptocurrency to pay actors conducting sabotage in Europe in order to prevent European intelligence services from tracking the payments. Cenckiewicz stated that the Kremlin increasingly relies on “ad hoc” local agents for sabotage missions and that Poland discovered in 2023 a network of agents whom the Russian General Staff’s Main Directorate (GRU) recruited and whom Russia financed “to a high extent” with cryptocurrency. Cenckiewicz stated that the Kremlin increasingly relies on “ad hoc” local agents for specific missions to minimize risk to the Kremlin. Cenckiewicz stated that the Kremlin has also leveraged cryptocurrency to circumvent Western sanctions. Cenkiewicz also stated that Poland is now in a “state of war” in the cyber domain, and FT noted that Poland has accused Russia of orchestrating a recent hacking attempt to cut off the water supplies to Gdansk.
German Foreign Intelligence Service (BND) President Martin Jäger stated on October 13 that the frequency of Russian attacks on Europe is a “new level of confrontation.” Jäger stated that Russia is trying to probe Europe’s borders, undermine NATO, destabilize European democracies, divide societies, and intimidate the population. Jäger stated that Europe must prepare for further Russian escalation and cannot assume that Russia will not launch a conventional attack against NATO until 2029. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky compared on October 12 Russia’s recent attacks against Europe to the ways in which Russian President Vladimir Putin used Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014 to gauge the West’s reaction. Zelensky warned that Putin is preparing the Russian population for aggression against the Baltic States and Poland. ISW continues to assess that any future ceasefire or long-term pause in combat in Ukraine would free up Russian forces for rapid redeployment to Russia’s eastern border with NATO, whereby Russia may be able to pose a significant threat to NATO earlier than many European officials currently expect.
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