[ISW] 러시아 공격 작전 평가, 2026년 5월 1일

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핵심 내용 요약:

  • 우크라이나군의 러시아 유류 시설 타격: 우크라이나군은 4월 29일부터 5월 1일 사이에 크라스노다르와 페름 지방, 오렌부르크주 등 러시아 유류 시설을 공격했습니다. 여기에는 4월 1일 이후 네 번째 공격인 투압세 정유소 공격도 포함됩니다.
  • 장거리 공격 확인: 우크라이나군 총참모부는 우크라이나군이 최근 국제 국경에서 최대 1,676km 떨어진 곳에 있는 여러 러시아 항공기를 공격했다고 확인했습니다.
  • 러시아 정유 능력 저하: 우크라이나의 러시아 유류 시설 공격으로 인해 러시아 정유소의 평균 생산량이 2009년 12월 이후 최저 수준으로 떨어졌습니다.
  • 전선 변화 없음: 러시아군과 우크라이나군 모두 전선에서 뚜렷한 진전을 이루지 못했습니다.
  • 러시아의 드론 공격: 러시아군은 하룻밤 사이에 409대의 드론을 우크라이나 방향으로 발사했습니다.

관련 최신 자료 및 링크:

다음은 이 요약과 관련된 최근 자료 및 정보입니다:

참고: 제공된 링크는 해당 내용과 관련된 정보를 제공하며, 최신 상황 변화에 따라 정보의 정확성은 달라질 수 있습니다. 각 링크의 내용은 영어로 작성되어 있을 수 있으며, 필요한 경우 번역하여 확인하시기 바랍니다.

“`

[원문]

Ukrainian forces struck Russian oil infrastructure in Krasnodar and Perm krais and Orenburg Oblast between April 29 and May 1, including a strike against the Tuapse Oil Refinery.

May 1, 2026

Data Cutoff: 12:30 PM ET

Samuel Shafiro, Christina Harward, Diana Nasreddine, Nikolai Sundstrom, Jakub Kostka, Grace Mappes, and Karolina Hird

TOPLINES

Ukrainian forces struck Russian oil infrastructure in Krasnodar and Perm krais and Orenburg Oblast between April 29 and May 1, including a strike against the Tuapse Oil Refinery for the fourth time since April 1. The Ukrainian General Staff and Unmanned Systems Forces (USF) officials reported on May 1 that Ukrainian drones struck the Tuapse Oil Refinery in Krasnodar Krai overnight on April 30 to May 1 after previously striking the refinery on the nights of April 15 to 16, 19 to 20, and 27 to 28. The Ukrainian USF reported that they are still conducting the battle damage assessment (BDA) for the strike, but that the previous Ukrainian strikes on Tupase Oil Refinery destroyed at least 24 tanks, damaged at least four more, forced the plant to suspend operations, and caused several fires that took days to extinguish. Satellite imagery and geolocated footage published on May 1 show fires burning at the refinery. The Krasnodar Krai Operational Headquarters acknowledged that Ukrainian drone strikes caused a fire at the port of Tuapse on May 1. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on May 1 that Ukrainian forces also struck the Permsky Oil Refinery in Perm Krai on the night of April 30 to May 1, causing a fire and damaging the AVT-4 primary oil refining unit. The Ukrainian General Staff confirmed on April 30 that Ukrainian forces also struck the Orsknefteorgsintez Oil Refinery in Orenburg Oblast on April 29, causing a fire.

The Ukrainian General Staff confirmed that Ukrainian forces recently struck several Russian aircraft up to 1,676 kilometers from the international border. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on May 1 that Ukrainian forces struck several Russian Su-57 fighter jets and Su-34 fighter-bombers at the Shagol Airfield in Chelyabinsk Oblast, approximately 1,676 kilometers from the international border, on April 25. Satellite footage posted on May 1 confirms that the April 25 strikes damaged multiple planes at the Shagol Airfield. Ukrainian forces also struck Mi-28 and Mi-17 helicopters at an airfield near Babky, Voronezh Oblast (roughly 150 kilometers from the frontline) on April 29 or overnight on April 29 to 30.

Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil infrastructure degraded the average output of Russian oil refineries to their lowest level since December 2009. Bloomberg reported on April 30 that data from analytics firm OilX indicates that the average output of a Russian oil refinery dropped to an average of 4.69 million barrels a day, the lowest daily processing average since December 2009. Ukrainian forces have notably been escalating their strike campaign against Russian oil assets in March and April 2026.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

  • Ukrainian forces struck Russian oil infrastructure in Krasnodar and Perm krais and Orenburg Oblast between April 29 and May 1, including a strike against the Tuapse Oil Refinery for the fourth time since April 1.

  • The Ukrainian General Staff confirmed that Ukrainian forces recently struck several Russian aircraft up to 1,676 kilometers from the international border.

  • Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil infrastructure degraded the average output of Russian oil refineries to their lowest level since December 2009.

  • Neither Russian nor Ukrainian forces made confirmed advances on the frontline.



  • Russian forces launched 409 drones toward Ukraine overnight.

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