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The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced the terms for Russia’s unilaterally-declared May 9 Victory Day ceasefire. The Russian MoD stated on May 7 that Russia will unilaterally enact a Victory Day ceasefire starting at midnight local time on May 8 to midnight on the morning of May 10. The Russian MoD claimed that Russian forces will completely cease hostilities, including on the ground, frontline drone and artillery strikes, and long-range drone and missile strikes. The Russian MoD called on Ukraine to “follow this example” and reiterated its warning that Russian forces will launch a “massive” missile strike against Kyiv City if Ukraine does not comply with the ceasefire either on the battlefield or in strikes against Russian and occupied regions. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on May 7 that Russia responded to Ukraine’s May 5 to 6 unilateral ceasefire with additional strikes and new threats Zelensky stated that Russia “wants Ukraine’s permission” to “safely take to Red Square for one hour once a year” for the Victory Day parade before returning to its war against Ukraine. Russia will likely use its unilaterally imposed ceasefire to justify threats of or actual escalation against Ukraine.
Russia is issuing increasingly dramatic threats of escalation against Ukraine in the lead up to the unilaterally-declared Victory Day ceasefire. Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) Spokesperson Maria Zakharova claimed on May 7 that Russia will take “appropriate steps” if Ukraine conducts strikes against Russia to “disrupt” the May 9 Victory Day celebrations, including strikes against decision-making centers in Kyiv City. Zakharova and the Russian MoD reiterated the Russian MoD’s May 4 call for Ukrainian civilians and personnel of foreign diplomatic missions to leave Kyiv City immediately. Zakharova claimed that the Russian MFA sent this warning to all foreign diplomatic missions and international organization representative offices due to the possibility of a Russian retaliatory strike against the city. Russian State Duma deputies, who often act as bullhorns for the Kremlin’s rhetorical lines, claimed that Russian forces may use Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBMs) in the retaliatory strikes against Kyiv City and that these statements are Russia’s “last warning to Brussels.” European Commission Spokesperson Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Anouar El-Anouni stated on May 7 that the EU will not change its presence in Kyiv City and noted that Russian strikes have already damaged several diplomatic missions in Kyiv City, including the EU’s mission to Ukraine. El-Anouni stated that Russia is again attempting to shift the blame for its war onto Ukraine and that Russia is only escalating its war instead of showing a serious intent to make peace.
The Kremlin is likely attempting to establish that it can depopulate Kyiv City and control the decision-making of Ukraine’s partners with threats of escalating the war, even as Russian President Vladimir Putin likely seeks to disguise the weakness that Ukrainian deep-rear strikes against Russia have exposed. ISW continues to assess that Russia’s threat to retaliate against Ukraine for allegedly planning strikes against Moscow for Victory Day celebrations reflects Putin’s recognition that he cannot reliably defend his capital or other deep-rear areas from Ukrainian strikes. The Kremlin’s escalating threats leading up to the May 9 Victory Day likely intend to obfuscate this weakness by threatening or demonstrating a show of force against Ukraine and its allies, including with the Duma deputies’ invocation of the Oreshnik. The Kremlin has periodically launched or otherwise invoked the threat of its Oreshnik IRBMs in order to unsuccessfully compel Ukraine to capitulate at key points in the war and has also used the deployments of Oreshniks to Belarus to threaten Europe. Russia has conducted failed efforts to compel Ukrainians to leave Kyiv City through cognitive warfare efforts falsely portraying Russian forces as able to make a rapid drive on Kyiv City and through intense drone and missile strikes against Ukrainian energy facilities in Winter 2025-2026. Russia is likely attempting to continue its cognitive warfare effort in part by issuing escalating threats against Ukraine and its partners.
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