May 19, 2026

Data Cutoff: 2:00 PM ET

Parker Hempel, Nidal Morrison, Katherine Wells, Will Doran, Ria Reddy, Adham Fattah, Carolyn Moorman, and Brian Carter

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The United States continues to pressure Iran economically through its naval blockade and sanctions, which impose costs on Iran’s economy. The blockade is especially affecting oil exports. It does not follow, however, that these economic damages alone will compel Iran to accept US negotiating demands. US Central Command (CENTCOM) reported redirecting 88 commercial vessels and disabling four as part of the blockade of Iranian ports. Iran has expanded its oil storage by reusing 10 aging tankers to hold oil, according to United Against Nuclear Iran and Financial Times. These tankers are now clustered around Kharg Island and Chabahar Port. This indicates that Iran is experiencing challenges in storing the oil it produces because aging tankers are suboptimal for holding oil.

Restrictions and concerns from Iranian officials or citizens do not, on their own, imply that Iranian leaders will drop negotiating demands. Other factors, such as (but not limited to) a proven threat to regime stability, could trigger a rethink among Iranian leaders about their negotiating positions. Iranian leaders have proven that they care little for the economic well-being of the Iranian people beyond the impact the economic well-being of the people has on regime stability.

Some North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) countries reportedly support a plan to escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz beginning in early July if Iran continues to impose its blockade, according to a senior NATO official speaking to Bloomberg on May 19. One NATO diplomat stated that several NATO countries support the idea, but that there is not the required unanimous support to enact it. The diplomat added that some NATO countries are still reluctant to get involved in the conflict, but that NATO is generally concerned about the economic consequences of keeping the strait closed.

• The United States continues to pressure Iran economically through its naval blockade and sanctions, which impose costs on Iran’s economy.

• Concerns from Iranian officials or citizens about economic damage do not, on their own, imply that Iranian leaders will drop negotiating demands. Other factors, such as (but not limited to) a proven threat to regime stability, could trigger a rethink among Iranian leaders about their negotiating positions. Iranian leaders have proven that they care little for the economic well-being of the Iranian people beyond the impact the economic well-being of the people has on regime stability.

• Some North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) countries reportedly support a plan to escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz beginning in early July if Iran continues to impose its blockade, according to a senior NATO official speaking to Bloomberg on May 19. One NATO diplomat stated that several NATO countries support the idea, but that there is not the required unanimous support to enact it.



• Iran reportedly analyzed US military aircraft flight patterns to try to improve its ability to intercept and target US and allied aircraft during the war. The New York Times, citing a US military official, reported that Iranian military commanders studied the flight patterns of US fighter jets and bombers, likely ahead of and throughout the recent war. The US official is aware of the risk of predictable flight patterns, which means that the US military is aware of and could diagnose the issue of predictability during the ceasefire.

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