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Russian President Vladimir Putin has likely developed a false perception of the Russian military’s successes in Ukraine based on heavily exaggerated maps from the Russian high military command. A Ukrainian open-source cartographer and frequent geolocator published on X (formerly Twitter) on May 28 a reported leaked Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) map dated April 9 of the frontline in western Zaporizhia Oblast – the area of responsibility (AoR) of the Russian Dnepr Grouping of Forces. ISW has reason to believe that the leaked Russian MoD map may be authentic. The map alleges that Russian forces seized Prymorske, Stepnohirsk, Richne, Veselyanka, Zaporozhets, Zapasne, Mali Shcherbaky, and Shcherbaky (all west of Orikhiv); southwestern Orikhiv up to the railway; and Novodanylivka, Mala Tokmachka, and Bilohiriya (all southeast of Orikhiv). Russian Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov claimed on April 21 that Russian forces seized Veselyanka and entered Zaporozhets, and these claims are consistent with the leaked MoD map and show the Russian military command’s pattern of exaggerating advances in this area of the front.
ISW had not observed evidence that Russian forces had infiltrated or advanced into Orikhiv, Richne, Veselyanka, Zaporozhets, or Zapasne as of April 9. ISW observed evidence that Russian forces had entered (either through infiltrations or advances) but not seized Prymorske, Stepnohirsk, Mali Shcherbaky, Shcherbaky, Novodanylivka, Mala Tokmachka, and Bilohirya as of April 9. ISW has not observed evidence that Russian forces maintain a presence in Richne, Veselyanka, or Zapasne as of May 28. ISW has also observed no evidence that Russian forces have infiltrated or advanced into Orikhiv — the Russian operational objective in this direction since 2022. ISW observed Russian forces at closest infiltrating or advancing to positions about three kilometers from Orikhiv.
The Russian military command’s exaggerated claims about the Kupyansk area since late Summer 2025 show a larger pattern within the Russian military of misrepresenting the battlefield geometry at the highest levels. Gerasimov and other senior Russian officials have repeatedly presented inaccurate situation reports about the Kupyansk direction. Gerasimov claimed in late August 2025 that Russian forces had seized approximately half of Kupyansk. Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed in early October 2025 that Russian forces seized two-thirds of Kupyansk, and Gerasimov claimed in late October 2025 that Russian forces had surrounded 5,000 Ukrainian troops in Kupyansk and on the eastern (left) bank of the Oskil River east of the town. Gerasimov subsequently claimed in late November 2025 that Russian forces had fully seized Kupyansk, and Putin claimed at that time that 3,500 Ukrainian troops remained trapped on the eastern bank of the Oskil River. Gerasimov and Russian Western Grouping of Forces Commander Colonel General Sergei Kuzovlev claimed in December 2025 and January 2026 that Russian forces had seized Kucherivka (east of Kupyansk), Podoly (southeast of Kupyansk), Kurylivka (southeast of Kupyansk), and Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi (south of Kupyansk). Gerasimov claimed on April 21 that Russian forces eliminated the purportedly surrounded Ukrainian troops on the eastern bank of the Oskil River, almost six months after Russian forces allegedly surrounded the troops.
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