[ISW] 러시아 공세 캠페인 평가, 2025년 9월 10일

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핵심 요약:

  • 9월 9일에서 10일 밤, 러시아 드론이 폴란드 영공을 침범했으며, NATO와 유럽 관계자들은 이를 의도적인 러시아의 침투로 보고 있습니다.
  • 폴란드 영공을 침범한 러시아 드론의 수가 많은 것으로 볼 때, 이는 러시아의 의도적인 시도였을 가능성이 높습니다.
  • 폴란드 영공을 침범한 드론 중 일부는 ‘게르베라’ 미끼 드론이었을 수 있으며, 러시아는 2025년 여름부터 이 규모의 폴란드 영공 침투를 준비해 왔을 수 있습니다.
  • 러시아 관계자들은 드론이 러시아에서 발진했다는 사실을 부인하고, 우크라이나에게 책임을 전가하려 했습니다.
  • 벨라루스 관계자들은 드론이 벨라루스 방향에서 폴란드 영공으로 진입했음에도 불구하고, 러시아 드론 침투에 대한 연루를 부인하려 했습니다.
  • 러시아는 폴란드와 NATO의 능력과 반응을 측정하여, NATO 동맹과의 미래 분쟁 시나리오에 적용할 교훈을 얻으려 할 가능성이 높습니다.
  • 러시아는 또한 서방의 우크라이나에 대한 군사 원조를 제한하거나 억제하려 할 가능성이 높습니다.
  • 러시아 밀블로거들은 러시아의 폴란드 영공 침범에 대한 서방 보도를 반박하기 위해 다양한 이야기를 증폭시켰으며, 이 중 상당수는 러시아 및 벨라루스 정부의 공식적인 대응과 일치했습니다.
  • 우크라이나의 서방 파트너들은 우크라이나에 대한 군사 및 재정 지원을 지속적으로 약속하고 있습니다.
  • 러시아군은 최근 리만 근처와 도브로필리아 전술 지역에서 진격했습니다.

관련 최신 자료 및 링크:

주의: 제공된 링크는 예시이며, 관련 사건에 대한 최신 정보를 얻기 위해 언론 보도, 연구 기관 보고서 및 공식 발표를 지속적으로 확인하는 것이 중요합니다. 링크의 내용은 시간이 지남에 따라 변경될 수 있으므로, 최신 정보를 확인하십시오.

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[원문]

Russian drones violated Polish airspace on the night of September 9 to 10 in what NATO and European officials have suggested was an intentional Russian incursion.

September 10, 2025

Information Cutoff: 9:30 pm ET

Christina Harward, Anna Harvey, Justin Young, Daria Novikov, and Karolina Hird

TOPLINES

Russian drones violated Polish airspace on the night of September 9 to 10 in what NATO and European officials have suggested was an intentional Russian incursion. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk stated on September 10 that at least 19 drones violated Polish airspace overnight and that a significant portion of the drones entered the country from airspace over Belarus. Tusk confirmed that Poland shot down three drones and possibly downed a fourth as of the afternoon of September 10. Tusk noted that Polish authorities are still confirming the number of drones that violated Polish airspace and the number of downed drones. Tusk reported that the aerial incursion lasted about seven hours, starting at 2330 local time on September 9 until 0630 on September 10. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that as many as 24 Russian drones entered Polish airspace overnight. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte reported that NATO scrambled Polish F-16 fighter jets, Dutch F-35 fighter jets, Italian airborne early warning and control (AWACS) planes, and NATO mid-air refueling aircraft in order to intercept the drones over Poland. NATO Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe (SHAPE) reported on September 10 that Polish authorities put German Patriot air defense systems on alert in response to the incursion, and Rutte confirmed that German Patriots participated in efforts to repel the drone incursion. Tusk invoked Article 4 of the NATO Treaty on the morning of September 10 in response to the incursion. Article 4 states that a NATO member state can call a meeting to consult on any issue in which the “territorial integrity, political independence, or security of any Parties is threatened” and that fellow member states are encouraged to respond to the situation. NATO states last invoked Article 4 with the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

The large number of Russian drones that violated Polish airspace suggests that this was likely an intentional Russian effort. Tusk stated that this is the first time that a significant portion of the drones entered Polish airspace from the direction of Belarus and that the scale of the incursion was unusual. Tusk stated that previous Russian drone incursions of Polish airspace were due to “mistakes” (possibly referring to operator error), drone disorientation from electronic warfare (EW), or the result of smaller scale Russian provocations. Russian opposition outlet Verstka reported on September 10 that drones have entered Polish airspace six times during the full-scale invasion, with the first occurrence in November 2022, and that a total of at least seven drones and one missile have fallen on Polish territory during the war. The September 9-10 incursion of at least nineteen drones in a single night is notable and is roughly three times the number of projectiles that have fallen in Poland in the entire war. It is unlikely that such a number of drones could have all entered into Polish airspace by accident or as a result of a technical or operator error.



At least some of the drones that violated Polish airspace were Gerbera decoy drones, and Russia may have been preparing for an incursion of this size into Polish airspace since Summer 2025. A Polish military official stated to Reuters on September 10 that at least some of the Russian drones in Polish airspace were Gerbera drones. Ukrainian electronic and radio warfare expert Serhiy “Flash” Beskrestnov posted an image on September 10 of one of the downed drones and reported that it was a non-reconnaissance version of a Gerbera decoy drone without cameras. The Russian Gerbera drone is a decoy drone designed to mimic Shahed- and Geran-type drones in order to overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses. Beskrestnov also reported that he has documented Russian Shahed-type drones with Polish SIM cards recently. Polish journalist Marek Budzisz reported on July 10 that a report written by unspecified sources and published on July 2 stated that the Ukrainian military had recovered Russian drones with Polish and Lithuanian SIM cards and that these SIM cards could indicate Russian preparations to test strike corridors in Poland and Lithuania. Russia may have been preparing for the September 9-10 incursion for months, further indicating that the incursion was not an accident or the result of Ukrainian EW interference.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

  • Russian drones violated Polish airspace on the night of September 9 to 10 in what NATO and European officials have suggested was an intentional Russian incursion.

  • The large number of Russian drones that violated Polish airspace suggests that this was likely an intentional Russian effort.

  • At least some of the drones that violated Polish airspace were Gerbera decoy drones, and Russia may have been preparing for an incursion of this size into Polish airspace since Summer 2025.

  • Russian officials denied that the drones came from Russia and attempted to deflect blame onto Ukraine.

  • Belarusian officials attempted to deny any involvement in the Russian drone incursion despite evidence that the drones entered Polish airspace from the direction of Belarus.

  • Russia is likely attempting to gauge both Poland’s and NATO’s capabilities and reactions in the hopes of applying lessons learned to future conflict scenarios with the NATO alliance.

  • Russia is likely also attempting to limit or deter Western military aid to Ukraine.

  • Russian milbloggers amplified various narratives to refute Western reporting about the Russian violation of Polish airspace, many of which cohered with official Russian and Belarusian responses.

  • Ukraine’s Western partners continue to pledge military and financial assistance to Ukraine.

  • Russian forces recently advanced near Lyman and in the Dobropillya tactical area.

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