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Russian and Belarusian forces began joint Zapad-2025 military exercises on September 12 for the first time since Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Belarusian and Russian officials reported that the Zapad-2025 exercise will occur in Russia and Belarus, including Belarus’ Vitebsk, Minsk, and Grodno oblasts, and in the Baltic and Barents seas from September 12 to September 16. Belarusian military officials indicated that Russian and Belarusian forces are using the 227th Combined Arms Training Ground in Barysaw, Minsk Oblast for the Zapad-2025 exercises. Belarusian Chief of the General Staff and First Deputy Defense Minister Major General Pavel Muraveiko stated on September 12 that the Zapad-2025 exercises consist of two stages: the first stage consists of air and ground defense operations, and the second stage consists of clearing territory of enemy forces and conducting counteroffensive operations. Belarusian and Russian officials have not publicly confirmed how many troops are participating in Zapad-2025. Lithuanian Second Operational Services Department Head Colonel Mindaugas Mazonas reported on August 25 that 30,000 total Russian and Belarusian troops will participate in the Zapad-2025 exercises, but noted that only 8,000 of these troops will actually be within Belarus. Mazonas stated that of these 8,000 troops exercising in Belarus, 2,000 will be Russian and 6,000 will be Belarusian soldiers.
Russia and Belarus may have walked back efforts to use Zapad-2025 to support nuclear saber-rattling operations against the West, at least temporarily. Belarusian Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin claimed in early August 2025 that the Zapad-2025 exercises would focus on the use of nuclear weapons and Oreshnik missiles in response to militarization on Belarus’s western and northern borders and as part of strategic deterrence. Belarusian officials have significantly softened their rhetoric in recent days, however, potentially in response to increased tension with NATO due to the September 9-10 Russian drone incursion into Polish airspace. Belarusian Security Council Secretary Lieutenant General Alexander Volfovich claimed on September 12 that the Zapad-2025 exercises are “purely defensive in nature” and that their goal is “to work out issues related to ensuring the military security of the Union State.” Volfovich claimed that Russia and Belarus moved the exercises "deep inside" Belarus, "far from the state borders," and claimed that the Belarusian military communicated their plans for the exercises with the West.
Belarusian and Russian officials blamed Poland for overreacting to the threat of Russian aggression in response to Poland’s decision to close its border with Belarus due to Zapad-2025. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced the border closure on September 9, citing security concerns related to the Zapad-2025 exercises, and the border closed indefinitely on September 12. A Belarusian customs official told Belarusian state news agency Belta on September 12 that the border between Belarus and Poland experienced significantly higher traffic than normal ahead of the border closure. Belta published images purportedly of Polish authorities installing barbed wire along the border following the border closure. The Belarusian State Border Committee claimed that Belarus is ready to increase traffic through checkpoints on the Latvian and Lithuanian borders in response to the Polish border closure. The Belarusian State Border Committee also claimed that Belarus does not plan to close its border checkpoints with Poland. Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs Spokesperson Maria Zakharova accused Poland of ignoring the fact that Russia and Belarus moved maneuver exercises away from the border with Poland and reduced the number of personnel and military equipment in the exercise as signs of goodwill, and the fact that Belarus invited representatives from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), including Poland, to observe the exercises.
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