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Estonian authorities temporarily closed a section of road passing through Russian territory near the Russia-Estonia border on October 10 after Estonian border guards observed a small group of Russian military personnel without insignia in the area. Meelis Saarepuu, the head of the South Prefecture of the Estonian Police and Border Guard Board, reported on October 11 that Estonian authorities closed a nearly kilometer-long section of the road between Varska and Saatse, a portion of which runs through Russian territory, for safety reasons after observing seven armed Russian servicemembers near the Russian section of the road on October 10. Saarepuu stated that the servicemembers’ uniforms suggested that they were not Russian border guards. Saarepuu reported that Russian border guards answered Estonian border guards’ inquiries by claiming that the Russian activity in the area was routine. Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsakhna stated on October 12 that Russian forces are operating “somewhat more assertively and visibly than before” but that reports that the border situation is becoming more tense are exaggerated. Tsakhna noted that Estonian authorities plan to stop using the road altogether in the future, as there are alternative routes that bypass Russian territory already available or currently under construction. Reports of a small group of Russian servicemembers operating near Estonian territory come against the backdrop of Russian military aircraft violating Estonian airspace on September 7 and 19. ISW continues to assess that Russia has recently intensified its covert and overt attacks against Europe and that Russia has entered “Phase Zero” — the informational and psychological condition setting phase — of its campaign to prepare for a possible NATO-Russia war in the future. This event is the first instance of ISW observing “little green men” (a euphemism the Kremlin uses for the Russian military forces in unmarked uniforms) operating near a NATO state in the context of the “Phase Zero” campaign.
American intelligence sharing with Ukraine has reportedly been crucial in increasing the efficacy of Ukraine’s long-range drone strike campaign targeting the Russian energy sector in recent months. The Financial Times (FT) reported on October 11 that Ukrainian and US officials stated that the United States has been providing Ukraine with intelligence to facilitate Ukraine’s long-range strike campaign against Russia’s energy sector, including oil refineries, since at least July 2025. The FT reported that the United States began providing Ukraine with the intelligence following US President Donald Trump’s phone call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in July 2025, as Trump grew increasingly frustrated with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s unwillingness to move toward peace. The FT reported that officials stated that US intelligence sharing has been crucial in enabling Ukraine to better prepare drone routes to evade Russian air defenses. Three sources familiar with the matter noted that the United States was closely involved in all stages of Ukraine’s strike planning. One US official stated that Ukraine selected the long-range strike targets, and the United States then provided intelligence on the sites’ vulnerabilities. The FT noted that sources stated that the United States had also determined target priorities for the Ukrainians. The FT noted that Ukraine’s improved drone technology and increased drone production have contributed to the success of Ukraine’s strike campaign, allowing Ukraine to conduct more frequent strikes. Ukrainian strikes against oil refineries deep in the Russian rear have resulted in gasoline shortages across Russia and occupied Ukraine, resulting in long lines and increased prices at gasoline stations. The FT reported that the research group Energy Aspects assesses that Ukraine has struck 16 of Russia’s 38 oil refineries.
The Kremlin is attempting to stabilize its domestic gasoline market to offset the consequences of Ukraine’s long-strike campaign against refineries. Putin signed a decree on October 12 suspending reductions in the fuel damper payment subsidy to oil refineries from October 1, 2025, to May 1, 2026. The damper is meant to encourage oil refineries to sell their product domestically by providing government subsidies to compensate for the difference between higher export rates and the domestic market. Putin’s decision reflects the efficacy of Ukraine’s months-long strike campaign against Russia’s oil refineries, which continues to significantly destabilize Russia’s gasoline sector. Continued subsidies to the gasoline sector will increase costs on the Russian state.
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