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The United States presented a 15-point proposal to Iran via Pakistan on March 24. Pakistani Army Commander Asim Munir, who has reportedly served as the “key interlocutor” between the United States and Iran, delivered the proposal to Iran. Munir also contacted Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and offered to host talks between the United States and Iran. The 15-point proposal reportedly includes provisions requiring Iran to dismantle its nuclear program, end uranium enrichment, hand over its enriched uranium stockpile, grant full International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) access to Iranian nuclear facilities, limit its missile capabilities, cease support for the Axis of Resistance, and ensure freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. Three unspecified sources familiar with the details of the proposal told Israeli media on March 24 that US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are trying to establish a month-long ceasefire during which the United States and Iran would negotiate the 15-point proposal. Iran separately proposed five conditions for a ceasefire, including the complete cessation of US and Israeli attacks, establishment of a mechanism to prevent renewed conflict, compensation for wartime damages, an end to attacks on the Axis of Resistance, and international recognition of Iran’s authority over the Strait of Hormuz. Unspecified Iranian officials told Iranian media that no direct negotiations are currently taking place between the United States and Iran and that Iran will set the timing and conditions for ending the war. An Axios correspondent reported on March 25 that the Trump administration has not yet received a formal Iranian response to the US proposal for negotiations, citing an unspecified US official. The White House threatened on March 25 to conduct further military action against Iran if the regime does not agree to a deal to end the conflict.
A longtime observer of drone operations suggested on March 25 that drone footage posted by the Islamic Resistance in Iraq on March 24 is consistent with a fiber-optic first-person view (FPV) drone. ISW-CTP is unable to authenticate the Islamic Resistance in Iraq’s video, however. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq, which is a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias, claimed that it attacked the former US Victory Base at Baghdad International Airport and posted drone footage of the attack. The United States transferred control of the Victory Base to the Iraqi federal government in 2011, but Iranian-backed Iraqi militias have continuously claimed attacks targeting the base since the start of the war. The drone footage shows that the Islamic Resistance in Iraq targeted a helicopter and a US radar system. ISW-CTP has not observed any evidence to support the Islamic Resistance in Iraq’s claim that it attacked the Victory Base around March 24. Iraqi media reported two separate drone attacks targeting Baghdad International Airport on March 22 but did not provide enough information for ISW-CTP to assess whether the video that the Islamic Resistance in Iraq posted on March 24 was from one of those attacks. Likely Iranian-backed Iraqi militia front group Saraya Awliya al Dam posted footage on March 17 that open-source intelligence (OSINT) analysts also assessed to be from a fiber-optic FPV reconnaissance drone flying inside the parameter of the US Embassy in Baghdad. ISW-CTP assessed on March 17 that the group’s decision to advertise its possession of such a weapon represented a threat aimed at the United States.
If the Islamic Resistance in Iraq’s video is authentic, Iran’s ability to manufacture and operate fiber-optic FPV drones and transfer this technology to its regional proxies and partners would pose a significant challenge to US interests in the Middle East. Fiber-optic FPV drones are immune to jamming and can be used for intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance, or outfitted with strike capabilities to conduct precise targeting. The drones have small ranges and generally carry small payloads but can impose financial costs when used to target expensive assets. Russia and Ukraine have extensively used FPV drones in their war. Russia has given drone components to Iran, and Iran reportedly possesses FPV drones, but it had been unclear until this point that Iran had begun to transfer this technology to its partners in Iraq.
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