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Russian advances have slowed as Ukrainian forces continue to contest the initiative in different frontline sectors for a protracted period. Russia’s position on the battlefield has changed over the past six months (October 2025 through March 2026) as Ukrainian counterattacks and mid-range strikes, the block on Russia’s use of Starlink terminals in Ukraine, and Kremlin efforts to throttle Telegram have exacerbated existing issues within the Russian military. ISW has observed evidence to assess that Russian forces seized 1,929.69 square kilometers between October 1, 2025, and March 31, 2026, advancing at an average of 10.66 square kilometers per day. Russian forces comparatively seized 2,716.57 square kilometers of territory between October 1, 2024, and March 31, 2025, advancing at an average rate of 14.9 square kilometers per day. Russian forces advanced at an average of 5.5 square kilometers per day in the first three months of 2026, compared to an average rate of 11.06 square kilometers per day in the first three months of 2025.
Ukrainian counterattacks and mid-range strikes are likely impeding Russian efforts to advance. Ukrainian forces in Winter and Spring 2026 have made their most significant gains on the battlefield since Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk Oblast in August 2024 and have liberated the most territory in Ukraine itself since the 2023 counteroffensive. Ukrainian forces reportedly liberated over 400 square kilometers in the Oleksandrivka and Hulyaipole directions from late January 2026 to mid-March 2026 in two separate drives. Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Oleksandr Syrskyi stated on March 30 that Ukrainian forces are prioritizing conducting counterattacks in areas where Russian forces are the weakest in order to retake and maintain the operational and strategic initiative. Ukrainian counterattacks in southern Ukraine have had cascading effects on other sectors of the front, forcing Russian forces to choose between defending against the Ukrainian counterattacks and allocating manpower and materiel for offensive operations elsewhere on the frontline. Ukrainian forces also retook at least 183 square kilometers in and around Kupyansk in December 2025, which Ukraine has largely held onto despite Russian efforts to reverse them.
Battlefield realities as of late March 2026 continue to show that significant Russian battlefield gains, let alone total victory, are not imminent nor inevitable. Current battlefield dynamics do not suggest that Russia will quickly regain land in the Kupyansk direction or in southern Ukraine. Russian advances have significantly slowed as Russian forces continue to suffer personnel losses and increasingly rely on poorly trained and underequipped infantry to make gains. Russian forces also shifted to infiltration tactics to make gains across the front in 2025, but have struggled recently to consolidate their infiltrations, which partially enabled Ukrainian counterattacks in southern Ukraine in February 2026. Russian forces have held the theater-wide initiative since 2023, but the Ukrainian recent advances in the Kupyansk direction and in southern Ukraine demonstrate that Ukrainian forces are capable of conducting successful counterattacks, making tactically significant gains, hindering Russian preparations for offensive operations, and contesting the battlefield initiative in some sectors.
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