April 3, 2026

Data Cutoff: 2:00 PM ET

Ria Reddy, Parker Hempel, Ben Rezaei, Daniel Mealie, Kelly Campa, and Brian Carter

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Iran’s ballistic missile program is a military organization that consists of both combat and support elements, and it is impossible to evaluate the overall degradation of Iran’s ballistic missile program based on one element of the system. The ballistic missile program consists of combat elements—Iran’s missile stockpile and launchers—but it also includes support elements, such as research facilities, development institutions, and industrial facilities. Any evaluation of the degradation that discounts the status of the support elements of the program is therefore incomplete. The US–Israeli campaign has targeted nearly every element of Iran’s ballistic program (see below).

The majority of Iranian ballistic missiles are combat ineffective, even if they remain “intact.” About 50 percent of Iranian missile launchers are still “intact,” according to recent US intelligence assessments. This figure, however, appears to include launchers that have been damaged or rendered inaccessible. A unit is considered combat ineffective when it cannot accomplish its assigned mission. A unit does not necessarily need to be destroyed to be considered combat ineffective. A missile launcher that is buried is combat ineffective for the period it is buried. It is also combat ineffective if it cannot move from its underground storage facility.

Assessing Iran’s missile threat accurately requires distinguishing between different missile types. Iran possesses short-, medium-, and long-range ballistic missiles in its arsenal. Iran relies on medium-range ballistic missiles to target Israel. Iran fires its short-range missiles to target Gulf states and US assets in these countries. Estimates on the status of Iran’s missile program do not distinguish between the two, which limits the ability to use these estimates to completely understand the status of Iran’s missile program.

• Iran’s ballistic missile program is a military organization that consists of both combat and support elements. and it is impossible to evaluate the overall degradation of Iran’s ballistic missile program based on one element of the system. The ballistic missile program consists of combat elements such as Iran’s missile stockpile and launchers, but it also includes support elements, such as research facilities, development institutions, and industrial facilities.

• The majority of Iranian ballistic missiles are combat ineffective, even if they remain “intact.” A missile launcher that is buried is combat ineffective for the period it is buried. It is also combat ineffective if it cannot move from its underground storage facility.

• The combined force has rendered many of Iran’s missile launchers combat ineffective, but it is entirely unclear whether these “launchers” refer to launchers for medium-range or short-range systems or whether any of the launchers are interchangeable between medium-range and short-range systems.

• The US-Israeli campaign has solidified the operational success generated by rendering launchers combat ineffective and destroying missile stockpiles by targeting Iran’s defense industrial base extensively. Strikes on these sites will make it more challenging for Iran to reconstitute its missile and drone program over the long-term.

• Unspecified US and Israeli officials confirmed that Iran shot down a US Air Force F-15E over Iran on April 3. This incident is the first known US combat aircraft lost over Iranian territory since the beginning of the war.

• The IDF announced that it has prepared a plan to establish a “security zone” along the Israel-Lebanon border, which includes the destruction of Lebanese villages within the defined zone. Hezbollah would likely use the expanded Israeli presence in southern Lebanon and the displacement of southern Lebanese Shia to justify its position as the “defender” of Lebanon.

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