April 24, 2026

Data Cutoff: April 23, 2025

Jackson Karas, Daniel Shats, and Jon Plummer of the Institute for the Study of War; 

Luke Jacobus and Amy Sinnenberg of the American Enterprise Institute  

Taiwanese President William Lai Ching-te cancelled a planned visit to Taiwanese diplomatic ally Eswatini on April 21 after nearby Mauritius, Madagascar, and Seychelles revoked overflight permissions for his aircraft. The PRC very likely took unprecedented measures in pressuring third countries to help it disrupt Taiwan’s diplomatic engagements and erode Taiwanese sovereignty. The Seychelles Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that the revocation was in line with Seychelles’ policy of refusing to recognize Taiwan diplomatically. An official from Madagascar’s foreign ministry confirmed the revocation and stated that Madagascar “recognizes only one China.” Most countries have a “one China policy” and do not recognize Taiwan as an independent state. This appears to be the first time a country has invoked the “one China policy” to block Taiwanese officials from flying through its airspace.

President Lai stated on X (formerly Twitter) that the PRC pressured the three countries to cancel overflight permissions for the Taiwanese delegation. A senior Taiwanese security official stated that PRC pressure on the countries included threats to revoke debt relief. PRC Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) spokesperson Guo Jiakun commended the countries for adhering to the PRC’s “One China” principle and called the Taiwanese presidency a “false title,” asserting in a press conference on April 22 that “it’s very clear that there’s no longer a so-called ‘ROC president’ in the world anymore.”

Taiwan’s opposition Kuomintang (KMT) and Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) joined the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) on April 22 to pass a resolution condemning the PRC’s coercion of the three countries in a rare instance of partisan solidarity. Eswatini is the only African nation among the 12 countries that diplomatically recognize Taiwan. The government of Eswatini expressed regret that Lai would not be able to visit and stated that the incident will not change Taiwan-Eswatini relations.

• Taiwanese Diplomatic Relations: The PRC very likely pressured three African countries to close their airspace to Taiwanese President William Lai Ching-te to prevent his planned visit to Eswatini, one of Taiwan’s 12 remaining diplomatic allies. This is an escalation of PRC efforts to disrupt Taiwan’s international engagement and erode its sovereignty.

• PRC Espionage Tactics: PRC espionage operations are exploiting financial instability among Taiwanese military personnel to acquire military secrets and weaken Taiwan’s confidence in its military.

• PLA Modernization: The PLA may be prioritizing metrics of loyalty and ideological orthodoxy over material improvements in its military modernization, amid expansive military purges. Emphasizing political and ideological standards instead of operational competence could impede the PLA’s military readiness and lead to miscalculation.

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