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Western officials are increasingly reporting that Ukraine is hindering Russia’s advances in Ukraine, in line with ISW’s consistent assessments, but that the Kremlin likely remains committed to its original war aims despite some recognition within the Russian elite that the war is not going well. The US Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) published an assessment on May 18, noting Ukraine’s recent territorial gains following Russian forces’ loss of access to Starlink in early February 2026. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte stated on May 21 that Ukraine’s strong defenses are stabilizing the frontline and also noted Ukraine’s territorial gains. Ukraine’s intensifying long-range and mid-range strike campaigns have also imposed increasing economic, military, and manpower costs on Russian forces’ efforts to sustain the war effort for disproportionately limited gains, at least 59,000 seriously wounded, and over 800 captured prisoners of war (POWs). Zelensky’s statement indicates that Russian forces have suffered an average of 1,021 personnel killed, injured, and captured per day thus far in 2026. Bloomberg reported on May 22 that some senior Kremlin officials believe that the war in Ukraine has reached a “dead end” with no clear resolution, but that Russian President Vladimir Putin still wants to resolve the war on his terms, including fully seizing Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts by the end of 2026. Bloomberg’s report is consistent with ISW’s longstanding assessment that Putin remains unwilling to compromise his field in recent months.
Ukraine’s mid-range strike campaign is disrupting Russian transport arteries in occupied Ukraine and will likely complicate Russian logistics. Kherson Oblast occupation head Vladimir Saldo signed a decree on May 21 restricting the movement of freight vehicles on a section of the “R-280 Novorossiya highway,” the occupation name for the M-14 Mariupol-Berdyansk-Melitopol-Henichesk highway in occupied Kherson Oblast, as of midnight local time on May 21. The R-280/M-14 is a primary land route connecting Russia and occupied Crimea. Saldo noted that the decree includes exceptions for military transport vehicles and other essential goods. Footage published on May 21 shows the aftermath of a series of recent Ukrainian strikes on Russian military cargo along the M-14 highway, and geolocated footage published on May 22 shows Ukrainian forces striking Russian trucks along the H-20 Mariupol-Donetsk City highway – another highway that Ukrainian forces have been significantly interdicting in recent weeks. A Kremlin-affiliated milblogger criticized Saldo’s decree, however, claiming that it will make it easier for Ukrainian drone operators to strike Russian military vehicles along the highway, as every large transport vehicle will carry important cargo. Ukrainian forces have significantly intensified their mid-range strikes and battlefield air interdiction (BAI) campaign against Russian ground lines of communication (GLOC) in occupied Ukraine over the last several months, which has been generating cascading effects on the battlefield and inhibiting Russian advances. Saldo’s decision to restrict movement along the M-14 highway indicates that Ukrainian strikes have made transport along this route much more dangerous and will likely affect Russian logistics along this route within occupied Ukraine.
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