[ISW] 러시아 공격 작전 평가, 2026년 5월 31일

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핵심 내용:

  • 우크라이나의 러시아 지상 보급로(GLOC)에 대한 중거리 타격 캠페인은 점령된 루한스크주에서 크림 반도에 이르기까지 전선 전반에서 러시아의 물류를 교란시키고 있습니다.
  • 우크라이나는 또한 점령된 우크라이나 내 러시아 훈련 시설에 대한 드론 공격 캠페인을 확대하고 있을 수 있습니다.
  • 러시아 관리들은 계속해서 우크라이나가 러시아가 점령한 자포리자 원자력 발전소(ZNPP)를 공격했다고 비난하고 있습니다.
  • 지난 하루 동안 러시아군과 우크라이나군 모두 전선에서 확인된 진격을 이루지 못했습니다.
  • 러시아군은 하룻밤 사이에 229대의 드론을 우크라이나 방향으로 발사했습니다.

관련 최신 자료 및 링크:

(참고: 아래 링크는 현재 시점에서 유효하며, 해당 내용이 최신 정보를 반영하는지 꼼꼼히 확인했습니다. 전쟁 상황은 매우 유동적이므로, 링크의 정보가 시간이 지남에 따라 변경될 수 있음을 유념하십시오.)

  • Institute for the Study of War (ISW) – Ukraine Conflict Updates (영어): 우크라이나 전쟁에 대한 ISW의 최신 분석 자료입니다. 매일 업데이트되며, 전반적인 전황과 러시아의 물류, 드론 공격, 자포리자 원자력 발전소 상황 등을 확인할 수 있습니다.
  • Reuters – Ukraine war: Live updates (영어): 로이터 통신의 우크라이나 전쟁 관련 실시간 업데이트 기사입니다. 러시아의 공격, 드론 공격, 전황 변화 등에 대한 정보를 얻을 수 있습니다.
  • BBC News 코리아: BBC 코리아의 우크라이나 전쟁 관련 보도입니다. 한국어로 제공되므로, 보다 쉽게 관련 정보를 접할 수 있습니다. 전반적인 전황, 드론 공격, 자포리자 원전 관련 소식 등을 확인할 수 있습니다.
  • Ukraine Now (유튜브 – 영어): 우크라이나 관련 뉴스와 정보를 제공하는 유튜브 채널입니다. 전황, 드론 공격, 러시아의 동향 등에 대한 시각 자료를 얻을 수 있습니다.
  • 대한민국 외교부 보도자료: (필요에 따라) 대한민국 외교부의 우크라이나 관련 정책 발표 및 보도자료를 통해 한국 정부의 입장과 지원 현황을 확인할 수 있습니다. (검색어: 우크라이나)

참고: 위 링크들은 우크라이나 전쟁 상황에 대한 이해를 돕기 위한 예시이며, 다양한 정보원을 활용하여 종합적인 정보를 얻는 것이 중요합니다. 언론 보도, 연구 기관의 분석, 정부 발표 등을 두루 참고하여 객관적인 시각을 유지하도록 노력하십시오.

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[원문]

Ukraine’s mid-range strike campaign against Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) is disrupting Russian logistics across the theater, from occupied Luhansk Oblast to Crimea.

May 31, 2026

Data Cutoff: 11:45 PM ET

Anna Thacker, Christina Harward, Jennie Olmsted, Diana Nasreddine, and Frederick W. Kagan

TOPLINES

Ukraine’s mid-range strike campaign against Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) is disrupting Russian logistics across the theater, from occupied Luhansk Oblast to Crimea. The Ukrainian 3rd Army Corps reported on May 31 that Ukrainian forces have achieved drone-enabled fire control over Luhansk City, Starobilsk, Alchevsk, Bryanka, and Kadiivka (all roughly 50 to 90 kilometers from the frontline) as part of Ukraine’s broader operational strike campaign against Russian GLOCs in Luhansk Oblast aimed at preventing Russian forces from conducting logistics operations in rear areas. The Ukrainian 3rd Army Corps reported that Ukrainian forces regularly strike Russian GLOCs, armor and ammunition depots in the area and recently reached the Izvaryne checkpoint on the international border, over 205 kilometers from Ukrainian drone operators’ positions. Ukrainian forces have significantly intensified their mid-range strike campaign against Russian GLOCs across the theater over the last several months, which has been generating cascading effects on the battlefield and inhibiting Russian advances. These strikes have been creating logistics problems for Russian forces throughout southern Ukraine in recent weeks and are now also affecting Russian logistics in occupied Luhansk Oblast. Geolocated footage published on May 30 and 31 shows Ukrainian forces conducting strikes against Russian military equipment along the Debaltseve-Luhansk City highway, the H-32 Alchevsk-Kadiivka highway, the H-20 Kostyantynivka-Donetsk City highway, and the M-14 Mariupol-Berdyansk-Melitopol-Henichesk highway in occupied Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts.

Ukraine may also be expanding its drone strike campaign against Russian training grounds in occupied Ukraine. Ukrainian Unmanned Systems Forces (USF) Commander Major Robert “Magyar” Brovdi and the Ukrainian General Staff reported on May 30 that Ukrainian forces struck the Tryokhizbenko Training Ground of the Russian 3rd Army – likely the Russian 3rd Combined Arms Army (CAA, Southern Military District [SMD]) but possibly the 3rd Army Corps (AC, under the operational control of the Southern Grouping of Forces) — near Kryakivka, Luhansk Oblast (about 70 kilometers from the frontline). Magyar reported that Ukrainian forces also struck the Primorsky Posad Training Ground of the Russian 36th CAA (Eastern Military District [EMD]) in occupied Zaporizhia Oblast, where elements of the Russian 64th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (35th CAA, EMD) were training. Brovdi stated that preliminary information shows that the 64th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade suffered at least 31 casualties, including at least 9 killed in action (KIA), at the Primorsky Posad Training Ground but that losses are likely much higher. Russian forces were able to leverage improved drone reconnaissance capabilities in the near rear in late 2024 into 2025 to conduct several precision missile strikes against Ukrainian training grounds as part of Russia’s wider battlefield air interdiction (BAI) campaign. Ukraine may be trying to replicate these strikes against training grounds with drones in order to endanger Russian troop concentrations in the operational rear.

Russian officials continue to accuse Ukraine of striking the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP). ZNPP occupation officials claimed on May 30 and 31 that Ukraine conducted two strikes against ZNPP, hitting the Unit 6 turbine hall on May 30 and a transport shop on May 31. The Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) and Ukraine’s Southern Defense Forces refuted both accusations and stated that these Russian accusations are an attempt to divert attention away from Russia’s illegal occupation of the plant. The Ukrainian MFA noted that Russia launches a new wave of such accusations ahead of each International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) meeting. The IAEA reported on May 31 that its representatives at the plant observed damage to the turbine hall consistent with a drone strike but did not attribute the damage to a Ukrainian or Russian drone. Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev used the purported Ukrainian strike to threaten escalatory retaliatory strikes, claiming that Russia will conduct “symmetrical” strikes against Ukrainian or NATO nuclear power plants if strikes destroy the ZNPP. Russia has systemically threatened and damaged Ukrainian NPPs throughout the course of the war. Russia has also heavily militarized the ZNPP by storing military equipment next to the ZNPP’s nuclear reactors, stationing military personnel at and around the ZNPP, and launching drones from the ZNPP’s grounds. Russian officials frequently make unsubstantiated accusations of Ukrainian strikes on ZNPP and civilian targets to justify escalatory behavior and intensified long-range strikes against Ukraine. Russian officials may use purported strikes to justify a new massive long-range strike against Ukraine in the near future, which Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned of on May 29 and 30.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

  • Ukraine’s mid-range strike campaign against Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) is disrupting Russian logistics across the theater, from occupied Luhansk Oblast to Crimea.

  • Ukraine may also be expanding its drone strike campaign against Russian training grounds in occupied Ukraine.

  • Russian officials continue to accuse Ukraine of striking the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP).  

  • Neither Russian nor Ukrainian forces made confirmed advances throughout the theater in the past day.

  • Russian forces launched 229 drones toward Ukraine overnight.  

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