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Ukrainian forces have largely halted the Russian Spring-Summer 2026 offensive so far, and Russian forces in May 2026 have gained a presence in only a fraction of the territory they did in May 2026. ISW observed evidence to assess that Russian forces gained control of or infiltrated 40.64 square kilometers between December 2025 and May 2026. Russian forces, however, lost 281.1 square kilometers in the same time period when only considering territory that Russian forces control. (ISW’s infiltration layer shows areas in which Russian forces — sometimes very small groups of a few soldiers — have infiltrated and maintain a limited presence interspersed with Ukrainian positions but do not control.) ISW calculations show that Russian forces lost control of about 281 square kilometers in part due to the fact that ISW recodes areas in the Russian advances layer to infiltrations when new evidence allows ISW to reassess the level of control Russian forces maintain over an area. ISW’s calculations that the Russian forces lost control of 281 square kilometers thus do not inherently mean that Ukrainian forces liberated that amount of territory.
Comparisons of Russia’s gains in 2025 with the same period last year show that Russia’s gains have slowed significantly, even when including Russian infiltrations. Russian forces advanced into 515.84 square kilometers from December 2024 to May 2025, compared to the 40.64 square kilometers into which they advanced or infiltrated in the same time period in 2025-2026. Russian forces thus seized or infiltrated into only 7.87 percent as much territory in 2026 as they advanced into in 2025. (Russian forces were not widely using infiltration tactics in early 2025, and ISW therefore did not have a Russian infiltration layer at that time.) Russia’s year-on-year performance statistics significantly worsen when comparing only areas in which ISW assesses that Russian forces exert control: the 515.84 square kilometers they seized in early 2025 compares poorly with the net loss of 281.1 square kilometers they suffered in the same period this year.
Other sources with different methodologies are also recording a slow Russian rate of advance in May 2026. A source reportedly affiliated with Ukrainian military intelligence reported on June 1 that Russian forces occupied only 14 additional square kilometers of territory in May 2026. The source noted, however, that it has delayed publishing information about Ukrainian advances due to security reasons and that Russia’s advances in May were actually negative. The current battlefield situation, in which Ukrainian and Russian positions are often interspersed and the “kill zone” is expanding, makes precise calculations about Russian and Ukrainian gains and losses difficult. ISW’s methodology differs from that of the Ukrainian military intelligence-affiliated source, leading to different calculations about how many square kilometers Russian forces have seized in May. The source’s overall assessment is nonetheless consistent with ISW’s.
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