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The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces seized the entirety of Luhansk Oblast for the third time over the course of Russia’s full-scale invasion, even though Russian forces have controlled most of Luhansk Oblast since October 2022. The Russian MoD claimed on April 1 that Russian forces seized all of Luhansk Oblast. ISW has observed evidence to assess that Russian forces control 99.84 percent of Luhansk Oblast as of April 1 but have not seized Nadiya and Novoyehorivka (both east of Borova). Russian officials have repeatedly claimed that Russian forces control all of Luhansk Oblast throughout the war. Then-Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu claimed in July 2022 that Russian forces seized the oblast, and Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) Head Leonid Pasechnik made the same claim again in June 2025. Russian President Vladimir Putin later claimed in October 2025 that Ukrainian forces only maintained positions in 0.13 percent of Luhansk Oblast. Russian forces have controlled most of Luhansk Oblast since Fall 2022, when the frontline in this area settled following the Ukrainian Kharkiv counteroffensive. Kremlin claims in 2025 and 2026 about seizing the oblast are aggrandizing miniscule changes on the front in Luhansk Oblast in order to create the false impression that Russian forces are rapidly advancing on various sectors of the battlefield.
The Kremlin’s aggrandized claims about the seizure of Luhansk Oblast are part of a wider coordinated information campaign that aims to create a false sense of urgency to force Ukraine to cede unoccupied parts of Donetsk Oblast. The Russian MoD’s claim about Luhansk Oblast is part of the Kremlin’s ongoing cognitive warfare effort aimed at portraying Ukrainian defenses as on the verge of collapse to drive the United States and Ukraine’s other partners into forcing Ukraine to unnecessarily cede territory that Russian forces are very unlikely to seize militarily in the medium term, if at all. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on March 31 that Russia is demanding that Ukrainian forces withdraw from the remainder of Donetsk Oblast within two months (by late May 2026) and implied that the Kremlin is trying to create a perception that Russia will imminently take Donbas and will make new, harsher demands if Ukraine does not withdraw from Donetsk Oblast on the Kremlin-dictated timeline. Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov answered a question on April 1 about the alleged two-month deadline, claiming that Zelensky must make this decision “today” but ideally should have made it “yesterday.” Russian State Duma Defense Committee Member Andrei Kolesnik claimed that Zelensky should have withdrawn from Donetsk Oblast “the day before yesterday.” State Duma International Affairs Committee First Deputy Head Alexei Chepa claimed that Russia’s new terms in the future could include demands that Ukraine also withdraw from Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts and cede Odesa, Mykolaiv, Dnipro, and Kharkiv cities. Kremlin threats that Russian forces are going to “inevitably” seize Donetsk Oblast militarily or even seize territory outside of the five regions that Russia has illegally annexed are not new. Russian officials have routinely called Odesa and Kharkiv cities “Russian” cities, for example. The Kremlin has been making these demands for years but is likely amplifying them now as US-Ukrainian-Russian negotiations have stalled due to the ongoing war in the Middle East.
Russian claims that Russian forces will be able to seize the rest of Donetsk Oblast easily — let alone make large-scale advances to seize major cities in other oblasts far from the frontline — are absurd and do not correspond with the current battlefield realities. The current battlefield realities and recent Ukrainian advances show that significant Russian battlefield gains are not inevitable, particularly against the large and well-fortified cities of Ukraine’s Fortress Belt in Donetsk Oblast. The Russian military command has previously set ambitious deadlines for the seizure of Ukraine’s Fortress Belt, and Russian forces have repeatedly failed to meet these goals. Ukrainian successes in 2026 have likely further disrupted Russia’s preparations for its spring-summer offensive against the Fortress Belt, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky noting on April 1 that Russian forces were unable to achieve their goals in Donetsk Oblast and had to again postpone their deadlines. Russian forces have also been unable to take advantage of their yearslong control over a majority of Luhansk Oblast to launch a successful offensive against Slovyansk or Izyum from the east of northeast. Russian advances have actually slowed since the start of 2026, with Ukrainian forces having shown their ability to contest the initiative for a protracted period and successfully counterattacking in various parts of the frontline.
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